The iPhone has dominated the smartphone landscape for more than a year. But now, Apple is about to meet a challenger in Google that could halt — or slow — its progress.
The first phone to use Google’s Android operating system has been created by Taiwanese handset maker HTC, and T-Mobile will be unveiling it this week and bringing it to the U.S. market next month. The HTC Dream, aka the T-Mobile G1, will make its public appearance Tuesday in New York.
And while analysts don’t expect it to become a runaway hit, it should post some big numbers.
The T-Mobile G1 is expected to sell anywhere between 250,000 to 450,000 units by the year’s end, depending on when the phone hits retail stores, says Michael Gartenberg, vice president of Jupitermedia. At 400,000 units, it would represent about 4 percent of the smartphones sold during the fiscal fourth quarter in the United States, says research firm Strategy Analytics.
Compare that to about 270,000 phones sold in the first 30 hours of the launch weekend for the 2G iPhone, or 1 million units in the first 74 days. By comparison, the 3G iPhone sold 1 million units worldwide in the first weekend after its launch.
The HTC Dream’s success will depend on how heavily Google and T-Mobile market the device. “No one associates Google with a consumer electronics company,” says Gartenberg.
But that could change. Leaked photographs show Google will have its logo on the back of the device. It’s likely that Google will market the device at least somewhat. And T-Mobile is likely to make a heavy marketing push for the G1, especially given that the carrier has just spent a lot of money upgrading its nationwide network to fast 3-G data speeds.
But can the HTC dream capture consumers’ minds in the same way that Apple and Research In Motion have?
That’s where the phone’s design will play an important role, say
industry watchers. So far, photographs suggest a slide-out keyboard and
a design that resembles that of T-Mobile’s Sidekick. The launch should help answer questions about
details such as thickness, finish and colors.
But it is not just about the hardware. The phone’s user interface and its integration with applications are expected to make all the difference.
G1 will have tight integration with Google apps, especially the company’s popular services such as Gmail, calendar and instant messaging, says Gartenberg. “So if you are a Google user, this device will fit right into your tech ecosystem,” he says.
The phone will also have a full-featured browser — and it is likely that it will be Chrome, the newly minted browser from Google.
What Tuesday’s launch event will make clear is the kind of support G1 or HTC Dream will offer for other applications such as iTunes or Microsoft Exchange.
G1 and the iPhone will have something in common: an applications marketplace. The Android applications marketplace, built along the lines of the iPhone App store, will allow independent developers to create programs for the operating system.
Android’s biggest asset is its open platform, said Rich Miner, Google’s group manager for mobile platforms, at the Mobilize 08 conference last week. With the release of the first Android-based phone, the operating system software will become completely open source, free and available to the industry for use and modification.
The idea is to allow the mobile industry to completely focus on innovation without being hampered by closed systems that make it difficult to develop new ideas, said Miner.
Still, free isn’t going to get Google the love and support it wants for Android. Google’s Android platform faces some significant challenges before it can displace rivals such as Nokia’s Symbian and Microsoft’s Windows Mobile, says Geoff Blaber, director of devices, software and platforms for U.K.-based research firm CCS Insight.
The biggest among those is the lack of widespread carrier support for the platform. The Open Handset Alliance that supports Android is backed by T-Mobile and Sprint in North America, while larger carriers such as AT&T and Verizon have stayed away.
“It is a reflection of the fact that underpinning Android is Google’s interest in the mobile advertising business and its potential as a new revenue stream for the company,” says Blaber.
Carrier support is a critical component of a handset’s success in North America and Western Europe, and the region’s biggest telecom service providers will be closely watching the HTC Dream, he says.
“The phone carriers are looking to capture additional revenue in mobile advertising and search,” says Blaber. “Although potentially Android is a big opportunity, there is a danger that partnering with Google to deliver Android means giving up control over that revenue stream.”
Mobile search is expected to be a $2.4 billion by 2011. “The fact that Android is being launched on T-Mobile and not on market leaders such as AT&T highlight that the major carriers are not willing to concede the mobile market to Google,” says Collin Gillis, an analyst with Canaccord Adams in a research note.
If Google can’t get more telecom service providers on board, it will find it difficult to get momentum for Android, says Blaber. “Google has some work to do to build out operator presence, especially in Europe.”
The HTC Dream doesn’t have to have everything right out of the gate, says Gartenberg. After all, the iPhone took almost a year to get support for Microsoft Exchange and to offer a 3G version with carrier support in 72 countries.
Though Google has staked its reputation by putting its logo on the G1 phone, it can afford to get ahead slowly, says Gartenberg.
“This is just the first shot across the bow,” he says. “It is not the end. Android is an open platform and anyone can take it and use it to run the services they want.”
When T-Mobile and Google launch their phone Tuesday, they don’t have to get all the details right but they will have to borrow some of the tricks from Apple’s playbook and have a dream they can sell to potential customers.
Photo: Leaked picture of supposed HTC Dream phone/iMobile Forum [via Engadget]
Previously on Gadget Lab:
HTC Dream Coming October 20
Revealed: HTC/T-Mobile Android Phone Pics
First Android-Powered Phone Wins FCC Approval — But Faces More Obstacles
Android Phone: Testing in Progress
Google Phone Announced As Mobile Operating System
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Technorati Tags: Google's Android operating system, T-Mobile G1
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Not feeling the drab, Fall-inspired Black and Bronze colors that T-Mobile has been offering with their T-Mobile G1? Not buying into the notion that “Bronze is the new brown?” Good news! T-Mobile has just made the White T-Mobile G1 official.
T-Mobile has announced that all T-Mobile retail channels are now offering up the decidedly lighter-hued T-Mobile G1 to round out the Black and Bronze G1 lineup. The White T-Mobile G1 commands the same $179.99 price tag (with two-year contract, of course) as its darker-colored brethren.
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T-Mobile helped DT’s bottom line by pulling in €639 million ($824 million) in data revenue - a 28.3% year-on-year increase. And, it didn’t hurt that T-Mobile USA added 670,000 customers to their subscriber-base.
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